We’ve all seen the poignant children’s’ grave markers in old cemeteries. The natural human impulse is sadness, of course. But there is a much bigger story here. Follow along as I outline both the human tragedy as well as the biological impact of reduced child mortality.
The bible verse of Matthew 19: 14 instructs us to “suffer little children” meaning permit or allow, not literally suffer. But there is great irony in that phrase. The suffering of children and parents was enormous during the nineteenth (and earlier) century. In the 1850 Mortality Census for Randolph County, Illinois, fully one third of the deaths that year were age five and under! The stated or inferred cause of death was viral or bacterial infection in 68% of the cases, parasites 30%. Accident claimed the remaining 2%. Local communities were in nearly a constant state of mourning. The numbers suggest every major village in the county was losing a child about every three months. Childbirth complications, tainted water as well as Scarlatina, cholera, measles, influenza outbreaks all did their work. One wonders if parents protected their psyche by not getting too attached to their very young offspring.
For Genealogists, it is not unusual to find families that lost a fourth or even half of their children before adulthood, often on the same day! By contrast, today it is almost unheard of for a child’s death to occur.
How did this change? And why? And what does it all mean?
Clearly the march of progress in medical research played a huge roll in reducing child mortality. Adoption of antiseptic products and the understanding of germ theory was critical. Thank you Drs. Lister and Semmelweis.1 The invention of anti-biotics added on to this medical miracle.2 And of course, just recognizing the important contribution of sanitary plumbing and civil engineering should not be missed. Other theories point out that none of this would have happened without the creation of wealth. Money may not buy happiness, but it sure helps build good plumbing!
All of this combined is a near miracle. For the first time in the ancient long history of humankind, we have a reasonable expectation of living to old age. Burials of children today are a rarity.
So, what is so bad about that?
Nothing. Not a thing. But it changes everything.
But there is hidden and unwelcome news at the core of this triumph. This arises out of the brutal way natural selection links childbearing to the elimination of genetic disease.
- John Tooby
For sixty years now, mutational pressure has increased due to a combination of rising parental age and declining infant mortality. What does this mean?
In the developed world, generally and the United States specifically, parents are waiting longer to have children. And instead of having ten children only to have half of them die, parents are only having one or two children with a reasonable expectation they will live to adulthood. Both lower birth rates and lower death rates are slowing down the natural selection process that maintains a healthy human germ line. Genetic diseases are becoming more prevalent.
We have radically altered the process of natural selection. Each child is born with about one hundred genetic mutations. Few are harmful but collectively they plague us with infirmities. Child mortality is the mechanism that fights genetic mutation in the human germ line. We have all but eliminated that protective mechanism. Are we approaching a genetic meltdown?3
You can read Tooby’s fascinating article here. > The Race Between Genetic Meltdown and Germline Engineering
So, what does this so called “genetic meltdown” look like? Great question so far answered as much by speculation as fact. Academics in the fields of evolutionary biology, anthropology and related areas have suggested a number of concerns.
Lowered intelligence-often a marker for overall genetic fitness.
Higher cancer rates
Lowered sperm counts.
Cultural shifts even affecting political beliefs. 4
Conjecture about specifics should be treated with skepticism, yet I am confident there will be consequences. Human beings are the only life form on earth that experiments on itself. Will this be our extinction moment? Will we go out with a whimper instead of a bang? Time will tell.
Dr. Ignaz Semmelweis discovered hand washing as an effective practice in reducing childbirth infections in 1840s, Vienna, Austria. Dr. Joseph Lister (1827-1912) pioneered antiseptic surgical procedures still in use today. The antiseptic “Listerine” was not invented by Lister but in tribute was named after him by inventor Joseph Lawrence in St. Louis, Missouri.
The invention of Penicillin is a long fascinating story but only by 1941 did mass production begin at the Peoria, Illinois Agricultural research station.
John Tooby, Edge Magazine, The Race Between Genetic Meltdown and Germline Engineering, 2016.
Joseph Bronski and Mathew Archer, Aporia Magazine, Leftism and Mutational Load, Feb. 14, 2024
Interesting article. I hope you are being overly pessimistic about our future! As you say, 'time will tell'.